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Total fertility rate (TFR) is a pivotal demographic measure used to estimate the average number of children a woman would have during her lifetime if she were to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates throughout her childbearing years. The TFR represents the average number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime based on current age-specific fertility rates. Unlike other fertility measures, such as the Crude Birth Rate, which does not account for the age distribution of births, the TFR provides a more comprehensive view of fertility by considering the specific age at which births occur.
The Total Fertility Rate is calculated using the following steps: Collect data on the number of live births to women in each specific age group (usually 5-year intervals) and divide by the number of women in those age groups. This gives the age-specific fertility rate for each age group. Add together the age-specific fertility rates for all age groups and multiply by the number of years in the age interval (usually five years if using 5-year age groups). The result represents the Total Fertility Rate, providing the average number of children a woman would have if current age-specific rates remain constant throughout her lifetime.
In 1992-93, India’s TFR was 3.4 children per woman for both the 15-49 and 15-44 age groups, which further dropped to 2.0 in 2019-20, representing a 41% decrease over the period. This decline has been steady and consistent across all survey years. The most substantial drop occurred between the 1992-93 and 1998-99 surveys when the TFR fell from 3.4 to 2.8 and recorded a decrease of 0.6 points. The subsequent surveys showed the same declining pattern from 2.7 in 2005-06, 2.2 in 2015-16, and finally 2.0 in 2019-21. Notably, the TFR has now reached the replacement level fertility rate of 2.1, which is the level at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next without migration. This is a significant milestone in India’s demographic transition.
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