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Total fertility rate in India from 2004 to 2020, by state

UID: PD-20241003-IN-13

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Source

Sample Registration System Bulletin

Last Updated

November 4, 2024

Time Range

2004 – 2020

Periodicity

Annual

Overview

Total fertility rate (TFR) is a pivotal demographic measure used to estimate the average number of children a woman would have during her lifetime if she were to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates throughout her childbearing years. The TFR represents the average number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime based on current age-specific fertility rates. Unlike other fertility measures, such as the Crude Birth Rate, which does not account for the age distribution of births, the TFR provides a more comprehensive view of fertility by considering the specific age at which births occur.

The Total Fertility Rate is calculated using the following steps: Collect data on the number of live births to women in each specific age group (usually 5-year intervals) and divide by the number of women in those age groups. This gives the age-specific fertility rate for each age group. Add together the age-specific fertility rates for all age groups and multiply by the number of years in the age interval (usually five years if using 5-year age groups). The result represents the Total Fertility Rate, providing the average number of children a woman would have if current age-specific rates remain constant throughout her lifetime.

Trends & Insights

India’s TFR declined from 2.9 to 2.0 children per woman at the national level, marking a crucial milestone in population stabilization efforts. Overall, the data represents stark regional disparities in fertility patterns. Southern states consistently demonstrated lower fertility rates, with Kerala and Tamil Nadu leading the transition. Kerala’s TFR decreased from 1.7 to 1.5, while Tamil Nadu reached 1.4 by 2020, well below the replacement level. These states’ achievement reflects their superior social indicators, particularly women’s education and healthcare access. In contrast, the Hindi heartland states reported higher fertility rates, though showing substantial improvement. Bihar’s TFR dropped from 4.3 to 3.0, and Uttar Pradesh’s declined from 4.4 to 2.7. While these reductions were impressive, these state’s TFR remained above the national average and replacement level fertility. Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan also showed significant progress, with their TFRs declining from 3.7 to 2.6 and 2.4, respectively. The newly formed states present exciting patterns. Telangana, carved out in 2014, maintained a relatively low TFR (1.5 by 2020), while Jharkhand’s TFR declined from 3.5 to 2.4, showing faster convergence toward national averages. Uttarakhand also achieved near-replacement level fertility with a TFR of 1.8. Urban-centric regions like Delhi showed consistently lower fertility rates, declining from 2.1 to 1.4, reflecting the impact of urbanization on fertility choices. The eastern states like West Bengal and Odisha also made significant progress by reporting a TFR of 1.4 and 1.8 in 2020.

This decline in TFR can be attributed to multiple factors, including improved education, particularly female education, better healthcare access, effective family planning programs, and changing socio-economic conditions. However, the persistent regional variations suggest the need for targeted interventions in high-fertility states, focusing on female education, healthcare access, and economic opportunities.

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Citation

Please cite this article using proper attribution to 360 Analytika when referencing or sharing our content.

Sample Registration System Bulletin. Total fertility rate in India from 2004 to 2020, by state (360 Analytika, Ed.) [Dataset]. 360 Analytika. https://360analytika.com/total-fertility-rate-in-india-by-state/

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