Age-specific fertility rate in India from 1992 to 2021

Overall, there was a clear trend of declining fertility rates across all age groups, particularly among younger women. The most dramatic changes in ASFR were observed in the 15-19 and 20-24 age groups, indicating a substantial reduction in teenage and early twenties pregnancies. For instance, the fertility rate for women aged 15-19 decreased from 130 per 1,000 women in 1992-93 to just 43 in 2019-21, marking a 67% reduction. Similarly, ASFR in the 20-24 age group saw a decrease from 210 in 1998-99 to 165 in 2019-21. This trend suggests improved access to education, increased awareness of family planning, and changing societal norms regarding early marriage and childbearing. The ASFR for the 25-29 age group showed a more moderate decline, from 143 in 1998-99 to 122 in 2019-21, indicating that while fertility is decreasing, this age range remains a common time for childbearing in India. The fertility rates for women in their 30s and 40s have also decreased, albeit less dramatically. This trend implies that while women are generally having fewer children, those who do have children are more likely to complete their families at a younger age. It’s worth noting that the data for 1992-93 appears to have some inconsistencies or potential errors, particularly for the age groups 25-29 and above, where the rates are significantly lower than in subsequent years. This anomaly should be interpreted with caution and may require verification. The consistent downward trend of ASFR across all surveys from 1998-99 to 2019-21 reflects India’s ongoing demographic transition. This shift is influenced by factors such as urbanization, women’s empowerment, economic development, and the success of family planning programs. The most recent data from 2019-21 showed that fertility rates continued to decline, with the highest rates now observed in the 20-24 age group, followed closely by the 25-29 group. This pattern suggests that while women are delaying childbirth compared to previous decades, the mid-20s remain the peak childbearing years in India.

These changes in fertility patterns have significant implications for India’s population structure, economic planning, and social policies. As fertility rates continue to decline, especially among younger women, India may experience a demographic dividend, with a larger proportion of working-age adults relative to dependents. However, this also means that in the long term, the country may need to prepare for an ageing population and the associated challenges in healthcare and social security systems.