Land Productivity of Rice, Wheat and Maize in India under Manmohan Singh and Narendra Modi’s Leadership

Introduction

Agriculture has been the backbone of India’s economy for a long time, providing livelihoods for a significant portion of its population. To ensure the sector’s sustainability and prosperity, two critical inputs must be optimized: land and labour. High productivity in both dimensions is essential for fostering economic growth, reducing poverty, and protecting the environment. Under the leadership of two prominent Indian Prime Ministers, Manmohan Singh and Narendra Modi, the country has witnessed various agricultural policies to enhance land productivity. To build a food system that works for people and the planet, all the countries must achieve high productivity in agriculture. High labour productivity, which entails producing more food per hour worked, is crucial for farmers to escape poverty. Especially in a situation where a significant portion of the population is engaged in farming with minimal returns, it leads to a cycle of poverty, limiting access to education, healthcare, and opportunities for diversification into other industries. High land productivity, measured as crop yields per unit of land area, is equally essential for protecting the world’s wildlife. Efficient land use reduces the need for deforestation and preserves habitats rich in biodiversity. Therefore, improving land productivity is essential for sustainable agricultural practices that balance economic needs with environmental conservation.

Agricultural policies under Manmohan Singh

During Manmohan Singh’s tenure as India’s prime minister from 2004 to 2014, he implemented several policies designed to raise agricultural output. His tenure saw significant investments in irrigation, technology, and rural infrastructure, which improved crop yields.

National Horticulture Mission (NHM), launched in 2005, aimed to promote the holistic growth of the horticulture sector. By increasing the area under horticulture and improving productivity through technology and infrastructure support, NHM played a crucial role in boosting land productivity for fruits, vegetables, and other high-value crops.

Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana (RKVY), introduced in 2007, sought to incentivize states to increase public agricultural investment. This scheme provided financial assistance for projects that enhanced agricultural productivity, including those focused on land development, water resource management, and crop diversification.

National Food Security Mission (NFSM), launched in 2007, aimed to raise rice, wheat, and pulse production through area and productivity enhancement. The mission promoted the adoption of modern agricultural practices and technologies to increase crop yields.

Agricultural policies under Narendra Modi

Narendra Modi, who assumed office in 2014, continued to prioritize agricultural development with a focus on doubling farmers’ incomes and ensuring sustainable agricultural practices. His government introduced several landmark initiatives aimed at enhancing land productivity.

In 2015, Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchai Yojana (PMKSY) aimed to expand irrigation coverage and improve water use efficiency. By ensuring ‘more crop per drop,’ this scheme has been instrumental in increasing land productivity in water-scarce regions.

The Soil Health Card Scheme, introduced in 2015, aimed to provide farmers with information on soil health and recommended nutrient management practices. By promoting balanced fertilizer use, the Scheme has helped improve soil fertility and crop yields.

The Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) scheme was launched in 2016 and aimed to provide comprehensive crop insurance to farmers. The scheme has encouraged farmers to implement modern agricultural practices and invest in productivity-enhancing technologies by mitigating the risks associated with crop failures due to natural calamities.

The agricultural policies implemented under both Manmohan Singh and Narendra Modi have created a significant impact on land productivity in India. Improved irrigation facilities, adoption of modern technologies, and better nutrient management practices have contributed to higher crop yields. For instance, introducing high-yielding varieties and using precision farming techniques have enabled farmers to produce more food per unit of land.

The importance of land productivity in India

For a developing country like India, higher land productivity can enhance food security, reduce dependence on food imports, and stabilize domestic food prices. Moreover, it also improves agricultural incomes, enabling farmers to invest in healthcare and education for their children, breaking the cycle of poverty and creating new opportunities for future generations. Efficient land use also helps conserve natural resources and protect biodiversity. By reducing the need for deforestation and promoting sustainable agricultural practices, India & other developing can make significant strides toward achieving environmental sustainability.

While India ranks among the top five countries in rice, wheat, and maize production, but in terms of yield or land productivity for these crops India still lags behind several countries. The are several researchers who found, that effective governance, supported by evidence-based policies and strategic investments, plays a key role in optimizing land productivity and ensuring food security for the nation. 

To understand how the land productivity of rice, wheat, and maize under different political landscapes and their governance style, this article analyzes the shifts in land productivity for these major cereal crops of India across the tenure of Manmohan Singh and Narendra Modi who served as Indian prime minister in the last 20 years for two major political parties of India, India National Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party, respectively. In this exploratory data analysis, we used the database of Unified Portal for Agricultural Statistics (UPAg), which serves as an advanced agricultural data management platform designed to generate crop estimates and integrate with other systems generating Agriculture Statistics such as Price, Trade, Procurement, Stock etc. 

Trends in land productivity: Wheat vs Maize vs Rice

Fig: 1

In the last 20 years, wheat has consistently maintained high land productivity, followed by Maize and Rice. During Singh’s tenure, the land productivity for Maize and Rice was close to each other. However, under Modi’s leadership, maize’s land productivity increased rapidly, and as a result, the land productivity of maize and rice got widened from 2014 to 2024. Notably, maize even surpassed wheat in land productivity in 2022-23. Despite experiencing several fluctuations and shifts, all these three crops have demonstrated upward trends in land productivity over the past two decades (fig: 1). 

Fig: 2

Fig: 3

During Manmohan Singh’s tenure, the year-over-year (YoY) percentage change in crop-wise land productivity was highly volatile. Especially, Maize experienced consistently high volatility, whereas the YoY percentage change in rice and wheat productivity comparatively remained stable (fig: 2-3). 

Compound annual growth rate (CAGR): Wheat vs Maize vs Rice

Fig: 4

Rice had a CAGR of 2.0% under Singh, but under Modi, this rate slightly decreased to 1.9%, whereas the CAGR of wheat saw an increase of 0.9% (1.9% to 2.8%) under the leadership of Modi. In contrast, Maize showed a robust CAGR of 3.4% under Singh but decreased to 2.4% under Modi’s tenure. During Singh’s tenure, Maize was the best performer in terms of CAGR, while under the Modi regime, Wheat took that place (fig: 4).

Percentage change in mean yield under Modi: Wheat vs Maize vs Rice

Fig: 5

During Modi’s tenure, the mean yield of Maize (2279 Kg/Ha to 3047.7 Kg/Ha) recorded a significant growth of 33.7% compared to Singh’s tenure. In contrast, other major staple crops—Rice and Wheat experienced growths of 19% (2223.1 Kg/Ha to 2644.7 Kg/Ha) and 17% (2890.5 Kg/Ha to 3351.9 Kg/Ha), respectively (fig: 5-6). 

Fig: 6

These disparities in mean yield growth suggest the prioritization and effectiveness of agricultural policies and practices tailored more towards Maize during Modi’s regime, leading to more significant productivity gains in these crops compared to others.

Over the past two decades, India’s agricultural landscape has witnessed significant changes in land productivity for its major staple crops—wheat, maize, and rice. Wheat has consistently maintained high productivity levels, followed by maize and rice. However, a notable shift occurred during the tenures of Manmohan Singh and Narendra Modi, leading to varied growth patterns for these crops.

Under Manmohan Singh’s tenure, the focus was on increasing the production of staple food crops like wheat and rice through the continuation of the Green Revolution policies. In contrast, under Narendra Modi’s tenure, the government has shifted its focus to diversifying the agricultural sector and promoting crops like maize, which are less traditional but have higher potential for growth and industrial applications in the near future. The Modi government has made ethanol production from maize a key priority to meet India’s biofuel blending targets. This has led to increased investment in maize research and development, as well as incentives for farmers to grow more maize for ethanol production.

These disparities in productivity growth and yield gains underscore the influence of targeted agricultural policies and practices. Moving forward, it is crucial to ensure a balanced and inclusive approach to agricultural development, addressing volatility, supporting diverse crops, and leveraging evidence-based policies. By doing so, India can achieve sustainable growth, enhance food security, and improve the livelihoods of its farmers.

Policy implications

Implement policies that equally support the productivity of all staple crops to ensure balanced growth. Invest in R&D for crops like rice and wheat to boost their productivity to match the gains seen in maize. Furthermore, allocating resources such as subsidies, advanced technologies, and improved farming practices across various crops can prevent such disparities.

Develop and promote the use of risk management tools like crop-specific insurance and futures markets to help farmers hedge against productivity fluctuations. Implement minimum support price (MSP) policies that offer stable and predictable pricing for crops, reducing the impact of volatility on farmers’ income. Encourage crop diversification to reduce dependency on a single crop, thus mitigating the impact of volatility on farmers’ livelihoods.

Create targeted interventions and support programs for crops with declining growth rates to enhance their productivity and profitability. Ensure balanced investment in infrastructure, technology, and extension services across all major crops. Establish a robust monitoring and evaluation framework to continuously assess the performance of different crops and adjust policies accordingly.

Formulate agricultural policies based on evidence and data-driven insights to ensure they effectively address the needs of different crops and regions. Involve stakeholders, including farmers, agronomists, and industry experts, in the policy formulation process to ensure that policies are practical and beneficial for all. Establish mechanisms for regular performance reviews of agricultural policies to identify their impact and make necessary adjustments to improve outcomes.

These policy measures can help India to achieve sustainable agricultural growth, ensuring food security and improved livelihoods for its farming communities.

References

About Author: Pankaj Chowdhury is a former Research Assistant at the International Economic Association. He holds a Master’s degree in Demography & Biostatistics from the International Institute for Population Sciences and a Bachelor’s degree in Statistics from Visva-Bharati University. His primary research interests focus on exploring new dimensions of in computational social science and digital demography.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of 360 Analytika.

Acknowledgement: The author extends his gratitude to the Ministry of Agriculture for providing data support.

This article is posted by Sahil Shekh, Editor at 360 Analytika.