Fertility Decline in India: A Shift Towards Smaller Families and Empowered Choices

Fertility is the ability to conceive and give birth to children. It’s a natural capacity that involves a complex biological process called reproduction, which uses the reproductive system to produce offspring. Fertility indicators play a pivotal role in monitoring population health by providing information on the number of reproducing individuals and the calibre of their progeny. Moreover, these tools also help us understand a population’s social, economic, and demographic characteristics. India, the world’s most populous country, has undergone significant demographic changes over the past few decades. 

Fig: 1

The TFR for Indian women aged 15-49 was 3.4 children per woman in 1992-93, which declined to 2.0 in 2019-21. This represents a 41% decrease over nearly three decades, indicating a significant shift in reproductive behaviour. A similar trend is observed for the TFR among women aged 15-44, which mirrors the overall TFR, highlighting the consistency of fertility decline across the reproductive age spectrum. This decline suggests that Indian women are having fewer children over their lifetimes, which has profound implications for family structure, resource allocation within families, and overall population growth (fig: 1).

Fig: 2

The General Fertility Rate (GFR), which measures the number of births per 1,000 women of childbearing age (usually 15-49), also dropped markedly from 130 in 1992-93 to 72 in 2019-21, a decrease of about 45%. The CBR fell from 28.5 births per 1,000 population in 1992-93 to 17.1 in 2019-21, a 40% reduction. The CBR is a broader measure that reflects the overall fertility in the population, and its decline suggests a significant demographic shift towards lower population growth rates. If coupled with a relatively young population structure, this decline in CBR could lead to a “demographic dividend” where a large working-age population supports a smaller dependent population.

The TWFR decreased from 2.6 in 1992-93 to 1.6 in 2019-21, indicating a 38% reduction in the number of children women desire. This decline suggests that as fertility rates have fallen, there has been an increasing alignment between actual fertility and desired fertility. This indicates that women in India can achieve their reproductive goals, likely due to improved access to family planning services and greater reproductive autonomy. The convergence of TFR and TWFR (from a gap of 0.8 to 0.4) suggests improved women’s access to family planning services and greater reproductive autonomy. This trend reflects changing attitudes towards family size, likely influenced by factors such as urbanization, female education, and changing economic realities (fig: 2).

Overall, India’s fertility trends reveal a significant demographic transition, a move towards smaller families, increased reproductive autonomy, and potential economic benefits with far-reaching implications for the country’s social, financial, and developmental trajectory. However, it also highlights the need for essential policies to address emerging challenges such as regional disparities, population ageing, and gender imbalances. 

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About Author

Pankaj Chowdhury is a former Research Assistant at the International Economic Association. He holds a Master’s degree in Demography & Biostatistics from the International Institute for Population Sciences and a Bachelor’s degree in Statistics from Visva-Bharati University. His primary research interests focus on exploring new dimensions of in computational social science and digital demography.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of 360 Analytika.

Acknowledgement: The author extends his gratitude to the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) Program for providing data support.

This article is posted by Sahil Shekh, Editor-in-Chief at 360 Analytika.